A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Alert

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."